APC controls 30 of 36 state governments — a number that dominates headlines. But raw governor counts overstate APC's real ground strength. Since the 2023 elections, a significant number of governors won on opposition party tickets and subsequently defected to APC personally.
When a governor defects, his administrative machinery switches: state appointments, security advisers, ministry officials. His ward-level party structures — the people who actually mobilise voters, man polling units, and influence collation — were built under the opposition party and do not automatically follow.
A defected governor controls state resources, security appointments, and administrative pressure. But his ward-level party structure — the people who actually mobilise voters, man polling units, and influence collation — was built under the opposition party.
APC's 30-state governor count overstates their real ground strength. Many of those governors are personally APC. Their grassroots are not.
The Kano case is the most extreme: APC controls the governorship seat through a tribunal ruling but the electorate is overwhelmingly Kwankwaso loyalist. When Kwankwaso declares for ADC, Kano follows him — not the tribunal governor.
Plateau is structurally similar: the governor's personal defection from LP to APC is the most politically hostile move in the country. His voters are Obi voters. They did not defect with him.
The machinery discount in this model is calibrated to reflect this gap: 1–3% for defected and tribunal governors, versus 5–7% for original APC machines.